Fact Sheets
Evaluation system and procedure
The main task of the commission responsible for the potential analysis (PotAS) of German elite sports is to assess the Olympic summer and winter sports federations separately to provide a ranking list for the sports federations with the greatest potential to achieve podium and top-8 placements at the next Olympic Games. The ranking shall be used to allocate funding to the sports federations. For this purpose, three pillars are evaluated: i) the sporting success, ii) the athletes potential for the next Olympic Games and iii) the structures of the sports organisations. This evaluation system was developed in various working groups of the German Olympic Sports Confederation (DOSB), Federal Ministry of the Interior (BMI), the national sports federations, the Institute for Applied Training Science (IAT) and the Federal Institute of Sport Science (BISp) and handed over to the PotAS Commission in 2017
1. Sporting success
The objective and data-driven evalutaion takes into account the annual target competitions (i.e., European and/or World Championships) two years before the Olympic Games and evaluates the performances of German athletes relative to the top three nations within a sports discipline. Besides the pre-Olympic sporting success, qualification performances for the Olympic Games and sporting success at the Olympic Games (podium and top-8 placements) are included in the assessment of sporting success.
2. Athlete potential
Until the 2020/2021 Olympic Summer Games in Tokyo, the assessment of athlete potential was expertise-oriented and carried out by members of the national sports federations and the DOSB. These results were transferred to the PotAS Commission and integrated into the final report. For the 2022 PotAS-evaluation of the winter sports federations, a paradigm shift from an expertise-oriented to a data-based procedure was implemented. The athlete potential for the next Olympic Games can now be estimated on the basis of raw data (Elo-scores) from the sports database Gracenote and customised algorithms. In brief, the discipline-specific performance development of German elite athletes is compared to the development of all international athletes within a discipline. Thus, the current approach to evaluate athlete potential is objective, data-oriented and based on the world standard.
3. Federation structures
The evaluation of federation structures is based on specific criteria (attributes), such as talent identification and development (youth athlete management), training programming and performance development (training and competition management), good governance (sports federation leadership), sexual violence and abuse, anti-doping (health management). Two commission members each independently evaluate the criteria according to their expertise. First, the commission members assess whether the existing concepts meet the standards of the DOSB, the national anti-doping agency (NADA), Transparency International, etc. In a second step, the sports federations must demonstrate that they have the appropriate personnel to implement the concepts. In a third step, the commission inquires about the internal procedural paths for implementing the concepts through the available personnel. In case the two commission members disagree with regards to their rating, the entire commission is called upon for a final decision. In order to sharpen the focus of the PotAS analysis, in 2024 discussions were held with the commissioning bodies to consider removing the structural evaluations from the PotAS-analysis for the new cycle from 2025 to 2028.
Final PotAS report
At the end of each Olympic cycle, the PotAS commission prepares a final report containing the results of the evaluation of the three pillars and hands it over to the commissioning bodies, BMI and DOSB. The report is used for further consideration in the structural discussions and in funding decision on the annual planning by the funding commission. The funding of elite sports personnel and the federal bases is currently unaffected by the potential analyses.
Attribute system
The data is collected by the PotAS Commission office and entered into the PotAS data management system after the 2024 Olympic Games. The national sport federations do not have to process this main attribute.
- Percentage of the number of points achieved for places 1 to 8 at the 2024 Olympic Games in relation to the number of points achieved by the top three nations in the respective discipline/discipline group
Evaluation system for success attributes
The assessment of success attributes has been further developed. The focus of the success attributes is on the discipline-specific gap to the world's best. This is calculated from the average total score of the best three nations per discipline. The gap to the world's best is now calculated as the percentage ratio of the own result compared to the mean value described. If the own result is above the mean value, the maximum percentage value to be achieved is 100.
The evaluation is based on places 1-8 of each competition. Each nation represented is scored according to the following system:
1st place = 60 points
2nd place = 40 points
3rd place = 20 points
4th place = 10 points
5th place = 8 points
6th place = 6 points
7th place = 4 points
8th place = 2 points
If a nation is represented more than once, the points achieved are added together.
If a competition is assigned to several disciplines, the points achieved are divided by the number of disciplines (cross-discipline mixed competitions).
The data is collected by the DOSB, transmitted to the PotAS Commission office and entered into the PotAS data management system. The national sport federations do not have to process this main attribute.
- Individual sports: Percentage of quota places achieved in relation to the maximum quota places achieved by the best nation in the discipline at the OSS
- Team sports: Qualification of the national team for the Olympic Games
The data is collected by the PotAS Commission office and entered into the PotAS data management system. The national sport federations do not have to process this main attribute.
- Percentage of points achieved for placings 1 to 8 in target competitions defined by the DOSB prior to the Olympic Games in relation to the number of points achieved by the best three nations in the respective discipline/discipline group
Evaluation system see main attribute 1
The data is entered by the PotAS office. In the run-up to the 2024 Olympic Games, the DOSB provides a list of athletes who are categorised as potentially successful at the 2028 Olympic Games following consultation between the DOSB and the national sport federations. The national sport federations do not have to process this main attribute.
Evaluation system
As part of the 2023/24 potential analysis for the summer Olympic sports federations, the squad potential for the 2028 Olympic Games will be determined primarily with the help of the ‘Gracenote’ sports database.
Further information on the Elo-based evaluation system of the SQUAD POTENTIAL pillar
Future sporting success is based on goal-orientated youth athlete management. On the one hand, this management of young talent must define a guiding framework and, on the other hand, characterise variable, mostly sport-specific design options. From a scientific and federation perspective, the development, implementation and evaluation of a well-founded and long-term strategy for youth athlete management requires that concepts, measures and criteria for talented athletes are developed in advance, selected and promoted with and by qualified coaches and regularly coordinated, evaluated and further developed with those involved in the youth sector.
Top sporting performance in all age groups is based on training and competition management that enables targeted individual performance development on the basis of a framework training concept and specific diagnostics, for which qualified coaches are responsible and which is systematically monitored, recorded and analysed. The evaluation of training and competition management is based on the regular analysis of international development trends.
The quality of elite sport federation management depends on the federation's management structure, the quality of the staff involved - both full-time and voluntary - and the federation's culture.
The DOSB concept for the ‘Professionalisation of elite sports personnel in the national sport federations’ sets out the key points required for this.
Personnel selection, personnel development and personnel qualification are key elements of staffing in line with requirements. The remuneration concept for full-time and part-time positions influences the attractiveness of the respective position as well as employee satisfaction.
Good governance rules, including a sport-specific risk analysis, are intended to ensure the integrity and transparency of federation management and counteract undesirable developments.
The sports directors and the federal base managers are responsible for the management of elite sport federations and the implementation of elite sport guidelines wherever national squad athletes and promising junior squads train. Federation regulations and regional target agreements regulate the necessary binding details.
The position of the athletes' representatives within the federation's governance structure opens up active participation opportunities for those who are at the centre of sport: the active athletes.
Elite sport is dependent on sports facilities that meet the requirements of competitive training and competition. The requirement profiles required for this need to be professionally developed and refined.
Participation in international governing bodies is of particular importance for the further development of sports, competition structures and their rules and regulations and for the protection of federation-specific interests.
Coaches are an essential prerequisite for the possibility of top-level sporting success because they are centrally responsible for managing the performance development of their athletes. The national sport federations are therefore required to establish structures that enable the optimal qualification of their coaching staff. Firstly, this includes the conceptual definition and implementation of measures for coach qualification, coach recruitment and the deployment of coaches. In the context of trainer qualification, particular consideration should be given to the fact that successful trainer action requires professional, social, methodological and strategic competences, which must be taken into account accordingly in the training and further education programmes. Secondly, it must be structurally ensured that the task of trainer qualification in the federation is linked to appropriately qualified and full-time employees. And thirdly, a competence team should be set up to deal with the ongoing development of coach qualification, facilitate coordination between national sport federations and state associations and promote cooperation between national and state coaches.
Athletes can only perform at their best if they are physically and mentally healthy. Optimum physiotherapeutic, psychological and medical care is an essential prerequisite for this, in addition to the athletes taking responsibility for their own actions. To this end, it must be ensured that these services are coordinated and harmonised within the national sport federations via adequate procedures. This requires a conceptual definition and the implementation of measures by qualified employees. Communication with the athletes must be continuously adapted.
In addition to an annual basic sports medical examination and basic sports psychology support, professional support for national squad athletes also includes nutritional counselling. In addition, athletes have to deal with anti-doping guidelines on a daily basis. In order to relieve the athletes of this burden, the national sport federations must actively educate them about the regulations, advise them and support them in using the ADAMS platform.
It must also be ensured that the national squad athletes can practise their sport in a safe, physically and psychologically non-violent environment.
An optimal, reliable and clearly organised training and competition environment makes it easier for national squad athletes to concentrate fully on their sporting performance. The less they have to deal with administrative issues, the better. This requires a conceptual definition and the implementation of measures.
The athlete survey initiated by PotAS revealed that, in addition to good medical and physiotherapeutic care, national squad athletes are primarily concerned with financial concerns, the reconciliation of sport and education (dual career), the specific organisation and support of competition trips, including transparent squad and nomination criteria and an optimal training infrastructure. This includes the need for a clearly named and qualified contact person in the federation, the athlete coordinator, who can provide advice on the various topics, as well as active federation marketing. The better the federation markets itself, the more the national squad athletes participate financially and the more they can attract individual sponsors through increased public awareness. The transparent overview of the rights and obligations of the federation and national squad athletes as well as openly communicated nomination criteria contribute to greater planning security for the athletes as part of their season and career planning. In addition, good competition travel management helps the national squad athletes to focus on their core tasks when preparing for competitions.
All these procedures and the communication with the national squad athletes must be continuously adapted by the national sport federations.
Success in elite sport is based not least on successful scientific management that structurally enables and promotes the production, transfer and utilisation of scientific findings related to elite sport. Firstly, this includes the conceptual definition and implementation of scientific support services and research and development projects as well as the ongoing safeguarding of knowledge transfer. Secondly , it must be structurally ensured that the task of science management in the federation is linked to appropriately qualified and full-time employees. And thirdly , a competence team must be set up to deal with new knowledge requirements and transfer measures on an ongoing basis and to promote cooperation with the ‘Coach Qualification’ department.
